Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 10.222827 12.627337 15.339353 18.604560 22.407914 26.676749 31.807831
2025-04-20 6.850352 9.902048 13.771279 18.945445 25.582680 33.705221 44.279407
2025-04-27 5.124110 8.398376 12.944483 19.515886 28.543643 40.265576 56.353992
2025-05-04 4.058902 7.423100 12.469370 20.244916 31.525222 46.858234 68.760521
2025-05-11 3.241517 6.572772 11.938014 20.689828 34.001867 52.814157 80.596390
2025-05-18 2.521543 5.676330 11.128173 20.522233 35.460277 57.339477 90.640019
2025-05-25 1.898257 4.770207 10.105951 19.817130 35.943273 60.385648 98.660205
2025-06-01 1.489822 4.157408 9.458640 19.596571 37.089239 64.404354 108.233252
2025-06-08 1.106443 3.471999 8.531755 18.730478 37.043998 66.525910 115.011764
2025-06-15 0.942648 3.242442 8.445830 19.353397 39.519402 72.704748 128.248698
2025-06-22 0.713944 2.765522 7.748676 18.712039 39.710199 75.184753 135.808128
2025-06-29 0.612387 2.600911 7.697248 19.317620 42.153147 81.466205 149.650445
2025-07-06 0.400690 2.022590 6.605559 17.737786 40.611165 81.280799 153.606909
2025-07-13 0.320999 1.840187 6.441548 18.117566 42.842446 87.759490 168.968545
2025-07-20 0.262906 1.704356 6.364087 18.671372 45.451344 95.043633 186.024093
2025-07-27 0.219667 1.602891 6.355096 19.375202 48.409568 103.104946 204.754212
2025-08-03 0.177546 1.476499 6.240337 19.804698 50.830870 110.313765 222.327218
2025-08-10 0.132671 1.296267 5.908560 19.642910 51.985022 115.236783 236.126333
2025-08-17 0.091149 1.086255 5.409393 18.962331 51.942300 117.888729 246.012096
2025-08-24 0.066027 0.948154 5.108437 18.749478 52.891170 122.456279 259.485659
2025-08-31 0.042301 0.776935 4.616620 17.913807 52.334526 124.045145 267.603230
2025-09-07 0.034462 0.735371 4.624013 18.514819 55.154969 132.434313 288.521191
2025-09-14 0.022053 0.613965 4.245113 17.896018 55.020679 134.887891 298.510868